The magnet metaphor

A complex system is modulated it doesn't have material linear causality

Imagine a flat surface with electromagnets around its perimeter. They can vary in strength and polarity. Some you control, some are controlled by people you know, and some appear to change randomly. Many iron objects of varying mass and shape are in the middle of the surface. As long as the magnets don’t change, the iron objects will form a complex, stable pattern; however, as the magnets fluctuate in strength, the pattern changes. If some change polarity, then change is sudden and drastic before new stability emerges. At the same time, some of the iron objects get magnetised in turn as they pass through the fields, making the situation even more complex.

The magnets, in this case, modulate the system. They interact with each other and the system as a whole; they make it inherently unpredictable. Understanding what modulators are in play will help us understand the emergent behaviour of the system but not predict its future state. I can build models to simulate the behaviour of the system. However, simulation does not lead to prediction. The more modulators I can influence or control and the faster the real-time feedback, the more I can control the system's evolution.

So, instead of talking about drivers (with the implication of linear material causality), we talk about modulators. It also opens up exciting issues of representation (landscapes can show modulator impact) and new ways of assessing risk; how much of the past can you explain by the modulators of which are aware? The equivalent of dark matter. is cosmology. If high, the risk is high; if low, then the risk is less, and you scan the field differently. This attitude to risk is taken over into Estuarine framework

References

Blog posts

• Dave Snowden, [1], The Cynefin Company Blog (December 24, 2023)