PAGODA

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The PAGODA framework is a means of describing the characteristics of a complex system, building on the seminal work of Paul Cilliers. Like the other frameworks in the Cynefin arsenal, PAGODA offers a name-mnemonic as a way of more easily remembering dense information. Pagoda was chosen in part to visually represent the fractal (where each aspects shares characteristics with the whole) patterns that are inherent to complex systems.

Proximity (time and space) Emergence occurs in a complex system when there are many rich and local interactions between actants (see AIMS). Local is a key word here as it denotes contextual proximity to time and place. This is a key principle for creating change in complex adaptive systems (CAS): Small-scale, micro-actions that are contextually relevant, with the understanding that what works close to this space and time might not have the same effects if repeated elsewhere. These types of actions can be used to gain more knowledge from different perspectives across the system as well as to attempt to shift and change the substrate or dispositional state.

Anomalies (create them) The example often given to emphasise the importance of anomaly detection is that of the radiologists and the gorilla. Anomalies are important ways of engaging people in thinking about a problem area as they encourage more active thinking and awareness of what is not immediately in front of us. The underpinning idea for how to do this in the Cynefin ecosystem is to create a context where learning can take place e.g. descriptive self-awareness, rather than directly telling people what to do or how to think or guilt-tripping them into a certain desired behaviour. When people learn something in context, they can take contextually appropriate action.

Granularity Ensuring the right levels of granularity is an art form central to complex facilitation and methods. Too finely grained (our items are too small) and there are no discernible patterns. Too coarse and everything becomes abstract and it is difficult to see escape paths or alternatives from less obvious ideas or solutions. When we get the ´goldilocks moment´ of granularity and it's just right, elements in the system can decompose and recombine in potentially novel ways, remaining alive and responsive to the flux of the system. This relates to deterritorialisation in Assemblage theory.

Obliquity Obliquity is a strategy that says the best approach to more complex problem-solving is often to take a less head-on approach. According to John Kay in his book called Obliquity, complex or intractable issues can and should be explored by working on other related issues, on the side-lines. For resource allocation, oblique approaches can require less energy and time commitment, and can be used to glean more information about a wider system by introducing small-scale actions. Obliquity allows for emergence of novelty that might be helpful and takes us into a more-than-linear and less mechanistic approach to enacting change. Obliquity is also intimately connected to how change is navigated through the Estuarine framework.

Disintermediation Disintermediation is the idea of removing layers of interpretation and instead sharing direct experiences with decision-makers for distributed intelligence. This relates to a ethics of epistemic justice or justice of knowing (see Mirander Fricker) and is key to the SenseMaker approach.

Abduction/ Abstraction Building on the work of Max Boisot and "I space" amongst others, abstraction enables abductive insight or learning – that is, the creation of insight through novel connections. Abduction refers to the "logic of hunches" or reaching a conclusion or narrative of events based on the information we have at that moment in time, with the understanding that this knowledge is partial. Abduction in a Batesonian sense refers to "the difference that makes a difference" and the insight that can be revealed from layering different experiences across wider systemic contexts.


The overall name PAGODA represents the fractal nature of decision-making and action in complex adaptive systems.

"You don’t want homogenised context-free interventions; every situation or aspect of a system has a different starting place. A principle here is never to aggregate an aggregate but always use the same, finely-grained source data assembled at the level of people’s competence to act. A fractal is a geometric shape in which each aspect has the same statistical characteristics as the whole. This is pretty easy to understand in mathematics, but the word is often abused in social systems and theory. It is essential to our narrative work and vector theory of change: more stories like these, fewer like those." (Dave Snowden, 16 September 2024)

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