Uncertainty matrix
Name and history
The uncertainty matrix draws from strategy and knowledge management work predating even the Cynefin Framework; those early matrices contrasted the extent to which the system itself is potentially known or knowable (the nature of the system in reality, also known as ontology), with what was known and unknown to the decision-maker (our knowledge or capacity to perceive the system, also known as epistemology). The initial two-by-two matrix was then extended through the addition of unknowable systems and unimaginable to the decision-maker (or knower).
The two uncertainty matrices, combined here into a single visualisation, are the oldest, still in use, frameworks in Snowden’s body of work stretching back over thirty years, where the first version was a response against Johari windows.
Description & Use
The combined uncertainty matrix has been mapped against Cynefin domains, as figure 1 shows, as well as against tools, methods, and approaches in the Cynefin ecosystem (figure 2). A common misunderstanding is around the meaning of “known”, “knowable”, etc. in relation to the axis on the nature of the system. In this case, “known” does not necessarily indicate that every aspect of the system is known, but that the nature of it (its ontology) is.
Apart from using the matrix to map elements of the context we find ourselves in and make sense of the appropriateness of method, a diagonal line can be drawn from the bottom left. The known knowns are all about robustness, while everything in the red part of the matrix is about resilience. Elements outlined in the EU Field Guide can assist us in creating that resilience through creating systems and processes in advance of needs that we cannot foresee, or potentially even imagine, yet. Correspondingly, this matrix adds contexts to the methods and principles the Field Guide presents. Such resilient systems will need a degree of inefficiency if the system as a whole is to be effective.
The Uncertainty Matrix can also be part of the Estuarine Mapping flow as a way of making sense of the actions generated after the mapping on the Estuarine Framework is complete, or as a way of identifying needs and target areas for actions.
The key methods listed in the matrix can be found outlined in other parts of the wiki here:
References
Blog posts
- Dave Snowden, The uncertainty matrices, Cognitive Edge blog post (January 9, 2024)
- Dave Snowden, St David’s 2024: 3/5 Estuarine, Cognitive Edge blog post (March 5, 2024)
- Dave Snowden, The Origins of Cynefin - Part 3, Cognitive Edge blog post (July 9, 2010)